SIPs keep MFs afloat as investors redeem Rs 1.3 lakh crore in one year
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
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Ideally, one should opt for a 5 to to 10- year period in an MF scheme or exit when the goal is reached.
'We expect the bull-market phase to still persist, but now led by large-caps which offer better valuation and benefit from FII inflows.'
'We expect continued pressure on midcaps, but any sharp correction looks unlikely from here on.'
Staggered pull-out will help investors if the market continues to rise.
Monthly systematic investment plan (SIP) flows into India have held steady above Rs 13,000 crore in 2022-23 (FY23) in the face of markets delivering muted returns in 18 months. However, it is not a rose-tinted view when it comes to viewing new SIP registrations and the cessation of existing ones. The ratio of SIPs stopped as a percentage of fresh SIPs registered (called SIP stoppage or closure ratio in industry parlance) stood at 56 per cent in the first 11 months of FY23, compared with 41 per cent during the same period of 2021-22 (FY22).
Driven by inflows into Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs), the mutual fund industry's total assets under management rose to Rs 39.88 lakh crore in September from Rs 36.73 lakh crore in the year-ago period. On a monthly basis, the Assets Under Management (AUM) increased marginally from Rs 39.33 lakh crore in August. According to the latest monthly data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) released on Monday, the industry wide net AUM stood at Rs 38.42 lakh crore in September.
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The spike in volatility may not have impacted equity inflows, but it has weighed on new investors coming via the systematic investment plan (SIP) route. In May, 1.97 million new SIPs got registered - nearly 15 per cent lower than the previous five-month average of 2.3 million - reveals the data provided by the Association of Mutual Funds in India. Since June 2021, new SIP registrations have been upwards of 2 million each calendar month. The new SIP tally in May was the lowest in 12 months.
Gross inflows into active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes dipped 34 per cent month-on-month (MoM) -- to Rs 25,400 crore -- in April as investors applied brakes on lump sum investments amid a sharp upwards movement in the market. Gross inflows for March stood at Rs 38,641 crore. The sharp decline pulled the net inflows to a five-month low of Rs 6,480 crore, shows data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Those who have crossed 50 must show the greatest urgency. They need to achieve a corpus that can sustain them and their spouses for at least 25-30 years after retirement.
'Calendar year 2023 is going to be big as pessimism takes a back seat.'
The BSE Midcap and the Small-cap Index have run up 25.3 per cent and 31.3 per cent respectively over the past year. Valuations are no longer cheap, notes Sanjay Kumar Singh.
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
Contributions to mutual fund schemes through systematic investment plans or SIPs remain unfazed from the market volatility in 2022 with inflow growing to Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2022, a surge of 31 per cent from a year earlier, due to higher retail participation. In comparison, an inflow of Rs 1.14 lakh crore through the route was registered in 2021 and Rs 97,000 crore in 2020, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed. Going ahead, SIP numbers are expected to continue to remain strong in 2023 as investors are increasingly appreciating the importance of regular investing through the route, Kaustubh Belapurkar, director - manager research at Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
Let us take a look at some of the things that one should keep in mind.
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Over 85 per cent of SIP AUM, or Rs 5.8 trillion, is in equity schemes, compared to just Rs 6,100 crore in debt.
The 2023-24 (FY24) July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) proved to be a mixed period for asset management companies (AMCs). While the two largest listed AMCs, HDFC and Nippon, reported robust growth in both revenue and profits, the other two, Aditya Birla Sun Life and UTI, experienced profit declines. HDFC AMC reported an 18 per cent year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue to Rs 765 crore, while Nippon's revenue rose 15 per cent to Rs 475 crore.
The steady inflows from systematic investment plans (SIPs) into mutual funds (MFs), coupled with outflows from debt schemes, has propelled the share of SIPs in the total assets being managed by the industry to a new high of 17.1 per cent in February. SIPs are used predominantly by retail investors. Nearly seven of every 10 SIP accounts are in equity-oriented active MF schemes.
Many retail investors, who are experiencing their first bear market, are shocked at the erosion in the value of their mutual fund (MF) portfolios. The pain is especially acute for those who had taken excessive exposure to sector/thematic and small-cap funds. Even international diversification has failed to stanch the bleed in this downturn.
Quant funds are a unique offering in the MF space as the investment decisions are driven by a blend of active and passive strategies.
Investors with shorter horizon of three-five years can also look at balanced funds and also those looking to invest lump sum money.
HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) reported a healthy profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 430 crore for the July-September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). It rose 20.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and decreased 8.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). This was driven by good equity returns, leading to a sequential improvement in revenue yields.
Backed by their strong physical presence across the country, UTI Mutual Fund and SBI Mutual Fund (MF) have managed to mobilise a higher proportion of their total assets under management (AUM) from towns and villages than their peers. Data compiled by Nuvama Institutional Equities shows that UTI MF and SBI MF are the only two major fund houses with over a fifth of their AUM coming from areas beyond the top 30 cities (referred to as B-30). UTI MF tops the chart with 23.8 per cent of its assets belonging to B-30 centres, followed by SBI MF with 21.2 per cent B-30 assets. The industry average stands at 17 per cent.
Tax-saving investments should not be made with the sole purpose of saving tax, but should also help an individual grow his wealth, suggests Archit Gupta, founder and CEO, ClearTax.
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 248 crore in February, making it the second consecutive month of withdrawals as investors preferred equities over other segments on record SIP flows. Net outflows from the gold ETFs were at Rs 452 crore in the month of January. Prior to that, the asset class had seen a net investment of Rs 313 crore, according to the data of Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Despite the outflows, the category witnessed an increase in net assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs to Rs 18,727 crore at the end of February from Rs 17,839 crore in January-end.
'The idea is to invest where there is opportunity.'
In the third of the series, Suren Kochchar offers six pointers to help women achieve financial goals. An International Women's Day Special.
Running a SIP plan for more than six years almost completely eliminates the chances of earning negative returns.
Don't exit from growth-style funds as they may benefit next from a shift in investor preference.
India's mutual fund (MF) industry had barely any retail footprint when it completed 50 years in 2013. MFs had Rs 7 trillion in assets under management (AUM) in March 2013, of which around Rs 5 trillion was in institution-focused debt funds. By comparison, bank deposits in the country stood at Rs 67.5 trillion around the same time.
The fund house says it is doing this to protect the interests of existing investors.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
'Although mid- and small-cap funds have the potential for higher growth, they come with inherent higher volatility.'
Mutual funds' average cash holdings in equity schemes topped 6 per cent in February as fund managers went slow on deployment of new inflows on expectations of better buying opportunities amid uncertainties in the market.
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